Polling...

...and the TRUTH

I received an email this
morning from my good
friend Joan. She loves
her Son and doing the
work of ten people to
defeat Prop 8 in California.

This is my reply:

Joan

There is an almost unknown church in the
world, the church of the Digital god. They
only have one prophet, Pessimities and up
until last week Pessimities had only written
one line, "Blessed is he whom hath made a
backup."

Well last week I discovered a new line,
"Blessed is he whom hath only a cell
phone."

Now let me explain polling. The wise guys
call a statically significant number of land
line owners and ask a set of controlled
questions and then publish/sell their results.
If its a commissioned survey the questions
are very carefully written to evoke the desired
response.

OK, so whats wrong with this methodology?
Well somewhere between 19% and 31% of
all consumers over 18 years of age in the
USA don't use a land line for voice commu-
nication. They do it all with a wireless device
and if they have a land line it's a "dry line", a
land line used only to connect to DSL, there
is no phone connected to the line. There are
a few other little glitches with phone numbers
mined from voter registration lists, you may
have your phone number withheld or an
intentional wrong number on your registration

So the MSM publishes results that ignore
between one fifth to one third of people with
opinions... Lets be generous and say that 25%
of all telcom voice users are untethered, no
wires. We have Polls that have a margin of
error that is published with the results, but
what about the big BIG HOLE, the 25% of the
un-polled elite. Well they get to vote and
unfortunately for the Republicans, the un-polled
elite is rich in 18 to 30 something voters,
newly registered as Obama Democrats, who
BTW don't give a rats arse if you are straight
or gay, or black or brown, and the economy
is their NUMBER ONE PRIORITY. They just
care about the future and real CHANGE...

So Joan, smile and remember one of my grand-
father's great truisms. "He who laughs last,
never saw the joke to start with."

Bennie